Leverington Warns About Over Development

Submitted by Gary Leverington, Fitchburg

Dear friends and representitives,

I've grown increasingly concerned regarding the recent discussions of the NE neighborhood development.

What I hear mostly are concerns (quite valid) about the negative impact that building a large number of houses will have on the environment and animal habitat - what's missing are concerns about the impact on housing values.

Certainly current residents (if more informed and aware of the risks) would not be happy to see additional new housing being permitted in Fitchburg. Most are not in favor of it anyway!

And for those listening to the developer's point of view - rather than doing their own due dilligence to learn the true state of affairs about the health - or lack thereof - of the housing market in the Madison area - perhaps the following data linked below will serve as an information source.

Please remember - many people bought at the top in Florida and are now getting their heads handed to them (with a 29 month supply of homes for sale in some areas and home auctions with zero bidders)! They also mistakenly believed (at one point) that they were immune from a decline.

The facts are: Lending standards have tightened dramatically, and many would be buyers can no longer qualify for a loan - additionally - smart buyers are choosing to be prudent and wait for lower prices - and an increasingly large number of owners are facing mortgage resets that will raise their payments by 20-40% and give them little choice but to bail out and place their homes on the market.

Note: The majority of mortgage resets (subprime, ARMs, zero down) will occur in the latter part of this year and in 2008, thus placing additional downside pressure on an already weakening housing market.

Please become informed and refrain from adding additional housing supply into a market at precisely the wrong time (amid slowing demand and a slowing economy).

Just look in the Madison Sunday paper homes for sale section and see the increasing number of ads with the headline "Price Reduced" - do you still think Madison (Fitchburg in particular for purposes of this discussion) is immune from a down turn in prices during a period of falling demand and too much supply!

With more houses potentially on the way - with developers (example NE neighborhood that the public does not want or need!) promoting their own agenda regardless of the facts?

Some of you may choose to go along to get along with the developer crowd - and put your housing values at risk - but I for one do not appreciate the obvious naivete regarding this matter.

I'm aware you do not have an easy job amid developer pressures to continue adding more houses/condos. But the time has come to stand up and support the facts, not pie in the sky wishful thinking that our community is somehow immune to oversupply and slowing demand. It is not.

The evidence is below and the data speaks for itself. Please do the right thing for the people that already reside here - not to mention the land, the deer, the lake, traffic issues and infrustructure costs!

All the best to you in making your decisons.

Gary Leverington / Fitchburg

Here is the link - please print and distribute. Keep in mind - the information in the report is objective. (See Market Wrap Up for Thursday, Sept 27 titled "Markets Betting on More Fed Rate Cuts" by Gary Dorsch.)

Current supportive data is below as well (or read link):

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Falls 3.9% in July

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell the most on record in July, indicating the threat to consumer spending was rising even before credit markets seized up in August, a private survey showed today.

Values dropped 3.9 percent in the 12 months through July, steeper than the 3.4 percent decrease in June, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index. The index declined in January for the first time since the group started the measure in 2001, and has receded every month since then.

Stricter lending standards and reduced demand are prolonging the housing slump, now entering its third year. Prices may continue to fall as homes stay on the market longer, economists said. Diminished housing wealth may spur households to pare spending, hurting economic growth.
The housing slump "doesn't seem like it will go away any time soon,'' said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, who forecast the index to drop 4.1 percent. "As far as consumers go, this is another sort of pall over'' their ability to borrow against the value of their homes, he said.

Economists forecast the gauge would slide 4 percent, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

After the report, 10-year Treasury notes stayed higher, with the yield falling to 4.59 percent at 10:13 a.m. in New York, from 4.63 percent late yesterday.

The group's 10-city composite index, which has a longer history, dropped 4.5 percent in the 12 months ended in July.

Summer Declines

Compared with June, home prices in the 20 areas fell 0.4 percent after a 0.4 percent decline the month before. The figures aren't seasonally adjusted, so economists prefer to focus on the year-over-year change.

"The housing market has been weakening now for a couple of years and it just continues on its trajectory,'' said Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University, in an interview.

Shiller and Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College, created the home-price index based on research from the 1980s.

The index is a composite of transactions in 20 metropolitan regions. Fifteen cities showed a year-over-year decline in prices, led by a 9.7 percent decrease in Detroit. The area showing the biggest gain was Seattle, where prices rose 6.9 percent.

Prices for single-family homes in the New York metropolitan area were down 3.8 percent compared with a year earlier.

Other Reports

Separately, the Conference Board said today that its index of consumer confidence fell more than forecast in September to the lowest level in almost two years, as declining home values and tougher borrowing standards took a toll on Americans' spirits.

The National Association of Realtors, in a report today, said sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in August to a five-year low. Purchases were down 4.3 percent, less than forecast, to an annual rate of 5.5 million, the Realtors group said in Washington. Sales dropped 13 percent from a year earlier and median home prices rose 0.2 percent to $224,500.

Existing homes account for about 85 percent of the market and sales of new homes make up the rest. The report on new-home purchases, which are calculated based on signings and are considered a more timely indicator, is due from the Commerce Department tomorrow.

Rate Cut

The measures from Commerce and the Realtors group can be influenced by changes in the types of homes sold. Because the S&P/Case-Shiller index and another gauge by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight track the same home over time, economists say these more accurately reflect price trends.

Most economists expect housing to extend its two-year slump and continue to be a drag on economic growth as loan foreclosures rise and tougher lending standards make borrowing more difficult.

The Federal Reserve, cut its benchmark interest rate on Sept. 18 for the first time in four years and said the credit meltdown "has the potential to intensify the housing correction, and to restrain economic growth more generally.'' Weakness in the housing market was part of the reason U.S. payrolls fell by 4,000 last month.

The number of Americans who may lose their homes to foreclosure more than doubled in August from a year earlier, according to a report Sept. 18 by RealtyTrac Inc.

'Heavy' Discounts

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, on Sept. 20, repeated the central bank's intention to issue new consumer-protection rules by year-end. He also told the House Financial Services Committee that the subprime turmoil has spread through financial markets, ``raising concern about the consequences for economic activity.''

Bernanke made his comments at a Congressional hearing that also included testimony from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Alphonso Jackson.

A glut of homes on the market adds to pressure for sellers to lower prices. The inventory of single-family existing homes on the market represented a 9.2-months' supply in July, the most since October 1991, the Realtors group said on Aug. 27.

Earlier today, Lennar Corp., the largest U.S. homebuilder, reported the biggest quarterly loss in its 53-year history. Revenue at Miami-based Lennar fell 44 percent to $2.34 billion, the lowest in more than three years.

"Heavy discounting by builders, and now the existing home market as well, has continued to drive pricing downward,'' Lennar Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said in a statement.

To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net Last Updated: September 25, 2007 15:25 EDT

No Substitute for Water

Here’s a great line from one of my favorite comedians:

"You never know what you have until it's gone, and I wanted to know what I had, so I got rid of everything." - Steven Wright

Maybe that’s not such a bad idea. What would we really miss? What would we put in its place?

I certainly wouldn’t miss the closet full of project files that I ended up with after I sold my business. Come on… admit it… you also harbor a different, but equally useless, stash. Let’s face it; nobody alive today will ever ask for papers that are already 5 to 25 years old even if we did manage to remember we had them! (Exception: This excludes all documentation required by guys with guns… the IRS.)

In addition to the cardboard-clad “files” of paper, consider all those plastic-encased tubs of trinkets. It probably amounts to quite a pile of stuff weighing us down and not a collection of treasures that lifts our spirits. In fact, this assortment often distracts us from more important things. Oh sure, you have it closeted all right, but how many times are you going to move it from dwelling to dwelling or room to room over the course of your life?

Wouldn’t it be better to clear some of the clutter to create an opening for new thoughts and room for new interests (ok, new stacks of paper and plastic)?

I think Fitchburg residents have an equally useless and distracting set of clutter. (You knew I’d somehow relate this to the Blog’s theme… right?) We seem to shelter tattered ideas and drag them out from time to time instead of tossing them into the recycling bin. Sure we need to preserve some history (those breadcrumbs showing where we have been) but, above all, we need to pay attention to new information.

In case you haven’t guessed where I’m headed, this new input should serve as the basis for our revised vision of Fitchburg in the year 2030 or beyond. Instead of harping about the previous versions of the Future Urban Development plan, let’s listen to experts as they guide us in a new direction. We have more tools and more facts now than at any time in the past. This is both bad and good. We have more ways to destroy our habitat, our environment, our home. But, we also have more ways to measure this destruction and evaluate how to reverse the trend.

(1) One such reversal is to restore wetlands and protect streams and creeks through buffers and stream bank projects. (Water Quality)
(2) Another is to create (and live within) our Water Budget by knowing how much water we extract from the aquifer and how much we put back. (Water Quantity)

Although the Plan Commissioners have looked at farmland preservation and many other factors as they create a new Urban Growth Boundary, they have yet to factor in these two related concerns.

During his presentation on Sept. 4th (described in an earlier entry here), Professor Cal DeWitt recounted a conversation with someone at the Fish Hatchery. He described his research showing that adding a new municipal well probably reduced the flow of an old artesian well one mile away at Nevin Springs Fish Hatchery. The person responded to this discovery by saying “That well’s already built. Right? Then, we can’t do anything about it.” But, as Professor DeWitt pointed out, that’s the way our whole environment deteriorates, of course.

Let’s not destroy this wonderful area by a thousand tiny cuts to our support system.

Instead of only caring about the “top quality” wetlands, streams and lakes, we should be doing everything we can to restore all water resources to their original state. It is foolish to let some resources die an unnatural death at our hands just because we’ve let them degrade up until now. There are ways to protect them from further harm and also to slowly restore them to health.

Creeks and streams have a purpose and we need to appreciate their role. I was amazed to learn that once we’ve degraded a creek to certain level, the city no longer offers it the same protection as one that managed to escape that level of damage. Isn’t this backwards? Shouldn’t we be doing more to protect the one that needs it the most?

Wetlands help clean and regulate the water in our area and we need more of them not less. Our current guidelines protect the “high quality” wetlands more than those we’ve degraded to a greater extent. Again, this is backwards or at least short-sighted. Let’s strengthen the regulations to protect them all (when feasible). We should also identify areas that were once wetlands by evaluating the telltale hydric soils and restore them whenever possible to help prevent catastrophic floods and purify our water for decades to come.

A recent study, Strategic Watershed Restoration and Protection Plan for the West Waubesa Wetlands, by a UW–Madison class evaluated hydric soils in one watershed covering a large portion of Fitchburg along with parts of the Town of Dunn. The map below shows hydric soils identified in the study. For orientation, Hwy 14 runs north and south through the center of the map from McCoy Rd (top) to north of Hwy M (bottom). Click here to view a larger version of the map and for more information about the study, please email me at fitchburgvoices@gmail.com.

Although groundwater recharge has been considered by the Planning Commission, it has been analyzed under the assumption that we want the most “recharge” per acre so areas were considered more valuable if they scored in the top 25% based on infiltration criteria. Although their definition of good infiltration is debatable, even if it’s accurate it misses the point. Dr. Ken Bradbury, Groundwater Expert and Hydrogeologist, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey, gave a presentation last week explaining the hydrogeology system which underlies the Yahara Basin, including Fitchburg, and describing how scientists model and predict underground water movements. During the Q&A discussion, he indicated that although some recharge areas may be considered more important than others, all are important because some areas recharge different water features than others.

See the problem? If we recharge areas that affect X and not those that affect Y, Y will suffer.

In addition to recharge, the quantity of water we pull from the aquifer is also a big concern. As reported in recent newspaper articles, Dane County is now drinking from a couple of its lakes because numerous high capacity wells in the area are drawing down the aquifer enough that the water is no longer flowing into some lakes and is instead seeping from the lakes into the aquifer.

Dr. Bradbury also stated that in all of Wisconsin there are two areas that are having serious problems with groundwater (Green Bay and Waukesha) and two others that are designated as Groundwater Attention Areas to be watched – the Little Plover River (which recently dried up for the first time ever) and… you guessed it… Dane County.

I recently saw the new documentary film The 11th Hour. Without giving away the “plot” (which you probably already know), I was struck by one very unusual and startling calculation; it would cost the world about $35 trillion a year to perform all of the functions that nature does for us free of charge. That’s something like twice the size of all the world’s economies! Talk about externalities! This free service includes things like turning carbon dioxide into oxygen and pollinating plants. I assume it would also include flood control and water purification.

So, shouldn’t we use the *Precautionary Principle as we plan for our city’s future? The natural world is not just priceless from an aesthetic standpoint but is way beyond reach in economic terms. Will we miss it when it’s gone? Of course! What would we put in its place? The truth is; we can’t afford to replace it even if we knew how!

Please let your Plan Commissioners and Alders know that you want them to protect all of our water resources as they plan for the future of Fitchburg.

Footnote:

* (From Wikipedia) “The Precautionary Principle is a moral and political principle which states that if an action or policy might cause severe or irreversible harm to the public, in the absence of a scientific consensus that harm would not ensue, the burden of proof falls on those who would advocate taking the action.”

FLOWCHART: Are you a resident of Fitchburg, WI?

Sure, I'm guilty of saying that I'm from Madison when I travel outside of Dance County. But some folks seem to be genuinely confused about their city of residence, so I thought this flowchart might help. Click on the link below and when it opens, you may have to enlarge it by clicking near the top of the chart (if you see a "plus sign" or other "expand" symbol when you move the cursor over it).

I just noticed that sometimes, I'll get a message in Internet Explored indicating that it couldn't find the file. But, if I click "refresh" after the file fails to appear, it finds it! No, I don't understand why it works the second time, but you might give a try!

FitchburgResidentFlowchart1.jpg

P.S.
This is my first attempt to link to my own file so please email me at fitchburgvoices@gmail.com if it doesn't open for you. It would help to know what kind of computer and OS you are using. Thanks.

Website for Southdale-Rimrock

The Southdale-Rimrock Neighborhood Association has a new website (here). The home page includes the introduction below. Please share this with anyone interested in the area or the new re-development project:

"The neighbors, homeowners and tenants of the Southdale-Rimrock Neighborhood have renewed our Neighborhood Association and are ready to take an active role in the development and implementation of the neighborhood plan now being drafted. We are looking to work in partnership with our elected officials in shaping the future of our streets, homes and public places. We are becoming better-informed citizens and are proud to be active participants in developing our neighborhood character and quality-of-life.

We have been meeting regularly in an effort to get to know each other, share information, and form a neighborhood association. There are significant plans and changes being proposed that will impact our neighborhood, but very few of us seem to know in any detail what the true proposals and changes are. We want to be involved in the planning process and feel that the time has come for an open dialog with our elected officials and the major stakeholders about all aspects of the redevelopment of the Southdale-Rimrock area."

Water, Water... Anywhere?

The word is out. Professor Cal DeWitt has sleuthed some amazing and disturbing facts out of the recesses of our aquifers. At Tuesday night’s Planning Commission meeting, he explained the relationship he discovered between Fitchburg’s deep-aquifer, high-capacity Well #10 (located on Granite Circle) and the 125-year-old, upper-aquifer, cased artesian Well #8 (located at Nevin Springs Fish Hatchery). It had been assumed that both wells were drawing from separate aquifers based on their depth profiles (800 feet or more for Well #10 and 180 feet for Well #8), and one mile distance from each other. However, Professor DeWitt found a significant correlation between them that changes the original assumptions.

Nevin Springs was producing 400 gallons of water per minute (gpm) for a number of years until late 2001 when it started dropping. It has since continued at a lower rate of 300-350 gpm. A mile away, Well #10 started pumping in 2001 and within a year was pumping around 600k gallons per day.

As shown in one of his graphs, a pattern appears when comparing the flow volume drawn by the new, municipal well and the decreased flow, about 12 months later, from the artesian well.

The bottom line? About 10% of the pumpage of Well #10 is equal to the losses at Well #8 that show up after a 12-month lag. So, there is a connection between these wells in the upper and lower aquifers and water is traveling at the rate of 14.5 feet per day from Nevin Springs in the direction of the Granite Circle well.

The fact that Professor DeWitt was able to find this relationship buried in the data from many area wells is surprising enough but I received another shock when he told us that we don’t really know how this happens. It appears that, at least sometimes, the upper and lower aquifers are indeed connected even though they separated by an aquitard (made of layers of sedimentary rock) which limits vertical waterflow except in cracks. To complicate matters, the horizontal flow between these two wells is 10s of thousands of times greater than the vertical rate of water flow through the aquitard, perhaps because of long horizontal pipes that formed over the years.

What does this mean? Professor DeWitt urges us to consider the entire groundwater hydrology system before we do something that would stop the flow of water to important springs and lakes in the area. For example, if we turn off Deep Spring and other groundwater resources that refresh Lake Waubesa, the entire southern boot (most of the lake) would die (eutrophy). And distance does indeed make a difference when dealing with solutions. The farther away we stay from precious water resources, the better chance we have to protect them. So, locating any new well in the vicinity of the NE Neighborhood is more of a threat to Lake Waubesa and the natural resources because of its impact on groundwater flow to the watershed.

Although this bombshell was dropped during the agenda item for the NE Neighborhood and Stormwater Plans, it also must be considered for all well drilling activity and increased water use (ie. development) in Fitchburg and beyond. If we fail to consider how new high-capacity wells will draw groundwater from the surrounding area, other springs or wells (including private wells) could dry up. This has happened with many of the famed springs of Waukesha and the Little Plover River in Stevens Point, among others.

[Side Track: According to Devil in the White City by Erik Larson (link here), one entrepreneur wanted to pipe water from a Waukesha spring on his property all the way to Chicago to supply the 1893 World’s Fair. But, Waukesha residents didn’t want the water to leave the city and they showed up with guns, knives and pitchforks to stop the pipeline workers, returning at 2 am with a cannon (!) to drive away them away again. For the rest of the story, see the Lake Lore article on page 4 of the Alliance for the Great Lakes newsletter here.]

Fast forward to Fitchburg 2007.

Professor DeWitt explained the concept and vital need for Groundwater and Watershed Budgets which he likened to other budgets. Simply put, we need to know how much we are depositing (infiltration) into each aquifer and withdrawing (wells and springs) from each aquifer to be sure that we don’t overdraw our account and live beyond our means. To protect against this, he suggests that the City of Fitchburg recommend to Dane County and CARPC (Capital Area Regional Planning Commission) that:

1. they place high priority on developing a policy for a Groundwater Budget for the region; and
2. they work with Fitchburg on procedures for monitoring and evaluating diminished well and spring flow to the city and region.

I am happy to report that, after the presentation, applause (normally against the rules at these meetings) was allowed to acknowledge Professor DeWitt’s efforts, and the Planning Commissioners wisely responded to these sobering data by asking for more information before making a decision about the NE Neighborhood. I’m not sure if they actually ordered a Groundwater Budget but I think that prospect is at least on the radar if not the table.

(NOTE: FACTv recorded the entire meeting including Professor DeWitt's presentation. So, you can contact them to have a DVD made of all or part of the meeting or to rebroadcast it during their Thursday morning request slot. If that doesn't work for you, drop me an email at fitchburgvoices@gmail.com to borrow my copy.)

Calling All Localvores

Localvore -- A person committed to eating foods grown within their local food shed. (No, not a building!)

In case you haven't already heard about this, here's an event to seriously consider that was sent to me by a Sustain Dane Board Member (http://www.sustaindane.org/). What better way to support your local producers/growers and reduce your carbon footprint to boot? --- Terry

Eat Local Challenge – a 10-day challenge for you – and your organization

Join us in the challenge of eating locally for 10 days in September.
Fresh, locally grown food doesn’t just taste delicious, it can be better for our health, for our communities, for the Earth. When we eat locally grown food we support local farmers and our own community. The challenge is to have at least 10% of our food be local during the 10 days September 14 - 23. Go to http://www.cias.wisc.edu/eatlocal to register or for more information.

The challenge is to spend 10% of your food budget on locally grown or produced food during the 10 days from Friday, September 14 through Sunday, September 23.

What is “local”?

Buy food that is grown or produced as close to your home as possible. It could be from your own garden. Or it could be from your local Farmer’s Market. For the purposes of this Eat Local Challenge we are counting any food from Wisconsin or within 100 miles of your home as local.

Local also includes foods prepared or processed by locally owned companies or restaurants, preferably from locally grown ingredients.